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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."