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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.